BYU at Central Florida
Poor BYU. They lost star QB Taysom Hill in the 2nd quarter of their home loss to Utah State this past Thursday night. At least there will be a chance in this one as they'll have the entire week to attempt to recover from such a major loss in preparation for their flight to Orlando. The Cougars will now have to become a little like UCF, a team that's still dealing with life without Blake Bortles. Both of these teams are going to need to rely on their defense to win them games and at least hope their offenses don't lose the game if nothing else. I'll take the Knights at home.
My Call: Central Florida 21, BYU 19
Middle Tennessee at Marshall
Rakeem Cato is the best QB in the nation that nobody talks about. In Middle Tennessee, he gets to face a pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the FBS in terms of yards per game given up and TD passes thrown. The Blue Raiders have made up for that somewhat with 8 interceptions and being a middle of the road team in terms of sacks, but this formula just won't work against a QB like Cato. The Herd will likely give up some points to a very good Blue Raider offense, but they'll score plenty more to make up for that deficiency.
My Call: Marshall 49, Middle Tennessee 31
Cincinnati at Miami (FL)
Points should be a plenty in this one for the Hurricanes against a Cincinnati defense that doesn't defend the pass or the run well at all. True freshman QB Brad Kaaya and star running back Duke Johnson will have a lot of fun. Gunner Kiel should put up some decent stats of his own, but they won't be enough to overcome a lack of defense. Canes by plenty.
My Call: Miami (FL) 41, Cincinnati 27
West Virginia at Texas Tech
First thing I wanted to look at when analyzing this is how well West Virginia runs the football given that Texas Tech is the worst in FBS defending the fun. Turns out they are only middle of the pack as far as FBS teams go, but I think that's a bit misleading as one of their games was against a stout Alabama run defense. They've been adequate otherwise. And it also turns out that the Mountaineers aren't bad at defending the pass. Texas Tech isn't either, but that seems to be more a function of their run defense being gutted than anything else. Gotta go with West Virginia here. Clint Trickett should be able to get his yards through the air and that should open things up for the run game. The Red Raiders should score some points themselves, but they'll come up about 10 points short.
My Call: West Virginia 38, Texas Tech 28
Illinois at Wisconsin
2014 hasn't been that fun a year for the Badgers thus far, but they should have a grand old time of it against an Illinois team that plays no defense and just lost their starting QB for the season. The Badgers can learn from Nebraska in regards to what to do against Illinois. Give it to your star running back (in this case, Melvin Gordon) and let him do the rest. Wisconsin will take that advice, use it and get a blowout victory as a result. To me, the biggest mystery of this one is if Illinois coach Tim Beckman will quit or be fired after this one.
My Call: Wisconsin 38, Illinois 17
Indiana at Iowa
A pair of contrasting styles will go at it in this one. And that usually makes for a very interesting type of game. Iowa likes to slow it down, pound the ball, be physical and play defense while Indiana's plan is to try and outgun you for the win. I've got to take the team I have the faith in to get a stop when it's needed. That would be the Hawkeyes in this case.
My Call: Iowa 31, Indiana 24
Northwestern at Minnesota
Big 10 play has been a welcome sight for Northwestern, topping Penn State and Wisconsin in consecutive weeks. Minnesota has only played one Big 10 game thus far, beating a Michigan team that's a welcome sight for just about any team these days. Given that the Golden Gophers aren't a powerhouse offensively, why not go with Northwestern to keep the streak going? I don't exactly have a ton of faith in them though, so I'm thinking it'll be pretty close.
My Call: Northwestern 24, Minnesota 17
Boston College at North Carolina State
Battle of Florida transfers at QB in this one. It's Tyler Murphy on the Boston College side and Jacoby Briskett on the NC State side. I can't say I necessarily have a ton of faith in either of these teams, so this will end up being my first throw of the dart pick of the week. And the dart ended up hitting NC State, so we'll make them the selection by a few points.
My Call: NC State 27, Boston College 23
Louisville at Clemson
One of these teams has a very good looking young QB in Deshaun Watson and is at home. The other is still trying to figure it out offensively while relying on their defense to win them games at this time. That can work against teams like Syracuse, but it won't work against a decent enough Clemson team. The Cardinal defense will keep them in it for a while, but the Tigers will figure it out and take control in the second half.
My Call: Clemson 27, Louisville 17
Houston at Memphis
Why I didn't pick Memphis to beat Cincinnati this past week, I have no idea. I talked up about how much I liked them and still didn't have the guts to pick them? Unbelievable. Well, I'm not making that mistake this week. Okay Tigers, you've got my vote of confidence this week. Now go win!
My Call: Memphis 34, Houston 20
Washington at California
Cal games tend to be very high scoring and without much defense played. I don't see any reason why this one will be any different. The two questions for me are will the scoreboard in Berkeley explode and who wins? I'll say no, the scoreboard holds up and that Washington wins. Can't say I'm too confident about this pick either though.
My Call: Washington 55, California 52
Penn State at Michigan
Unlike the Cal/Washington game, it should be the defenses that dominate this one. Gotta be honest, if either team breaks 20 points, I'd be surprised unless one or both of these teams are making mistakes that give the offenses short fields. Penn State appears to be somewhat less of a mess than Michigan is at the moment, so I'll take them by a point.
My Call: Penn State 14, Michigan 13
LSU at Florida
Hostile road environment was a huge problem for LSU at Jordan-Hare Stadium as they had a true freshman QB making his first career start. That couldn't have made the QB situation any more clear for coach Les Miles. Fortunately for Les, Florida coach Will Muschamp has a few issues himself to work out. Incumbent starter Jeff Driskel was downright terrible against Tennessee and although true freshman QB Treon Harris was able to rally the Gators to a 10-9 victory in Knoxville, he is now suspended indefinitely on allegations of sexual assault. That very likely means it's back to Driskell for Florida. For me, this game comes down to field position and the team that can avoid making the big mistake or two. Until finding out about the Harris suspension, I was actually going to go with the Gators. Now though, I'm leaning towards LSU.
My Call: LSU 13, Florida 10
Air Force at Utah State
Got no real thoughts on this one, except that Air Force fans should be happy I picked against their team the last two weeks and Air Force proved me wrong. Well, I'm picking against Air Force again here. Time for Falcon fans to anticipate another win. I appear to be their good luck charm.
My Call: Utah State 34, Air Force 31
Colorado State at Nevada
Time for another fling of the dart. It hit Colorado State.
My Call: Colorado State 27, Nevada 24
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Top 25 Predictions (sans Auburn)
It was a wild week that not only resulted in a major shakeup in the college football world, but also caused a lot of unevenness for my overall record. Going just 17-16 in picking games this past weekend has left me at 142-47. If this coming weekend is just as wild, it could be more of the same.
#1 Florida State at Syracuse
Although the Noles aren't looking as strong as they did a year ago en route to the national title, they're still undefeated up to this point. They get to face a Syracuse team that's basically just a semi-better version of the one they just pounded in Wake Forest. Like in that Wake Forest game, it may take FSU a quarter and a half before they put it all together and figure out that they're the far better team, but it'll happen and then it'll get ugly from there.
My Call: Florida State 38, Syracuse 13
#3 Ole Miss at #14 Texas A&M
How do you follow up that upset over Alabama if you're the Rebels? One thing's for sure, it doesn't get much easier with a trip to College Station to take on an Aggie team that should be smarting from a beating they took at the hands of Ole Miss' Egg Bowl and in-state rival, Mississippi State. My honest opinion here is that the Rebels have the better team, but they're due for a letdown and Kenny Hill can't possibly perform as poorly at home as he did on the road in Starkville. My guess is this will end up being a nail biter where Bo Wallace ultimately comes up a bit short with a costly mistake late in the game. Kenny Hill isn't perfect against a tough Ole Miss defense, but is just good enough. And unlike the last couple weeks, Aggie receivers get over their dropped passes issues.
My Call: Texas A&M 26, Ole Miss 23
#9 TCU at #5 Baylor
Gotta admit I didn't give TCU enough credit. I didn't think much of them given their wins until this past Saturday were against the likes of Samford, Minnesota and SMU. However, they showed me they're real with that home upset over Oklahoma. Trevone Boykin was excellent in that 37-33 victory. Baylor was a little more shaky on the road in Austin against Texas, but good news for them is this one's in Waco. Bryce Petty should be able to have a bounce back performance in front of the home crowd and although my guess is Boykin and that TCU offense should be able to put up some points of their own, it'll be Petty and the Bears who emerge from a shootout victorious.
My Call: Baylor 38, TCU 35
North Carolina at #6 Notre Dame
It's not always pretty, but with Everett Golson under center, the Irish always seem to find a way to win ballgames (with the exception of one blowout loss). They shouldn't need to ugly it up too much against a UNC team that can't play any defense and shouldn't be too much of a threat offensively. My guess is the Irish won't make it as easy as it always should be, but will ultimately cruise.
My Call: Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 17
#7 Alabama at Arkansas
Kind of an interesting game here as an Arkansas team that appears to be much improved will take on a Crimson Tide team smarting from that six point loss in Oxford. Razorback coach Bret Bielema loves the ground and pound, control the clock type of style. Unfortunately for him, Alabama and coach Nick Saban do that better than Bilema and his Hogs do at this point in time. Plus the Tide can always throw to Amari Cooper, another benefit Arkansas doesn't have. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Arkansas hang in this one for a while, but it's tough to see the Tide losing two in a row, especially when this one is against a team that they should match up well with. They should ultimately gain control of this one late in the 3rd or early in the 4th quarter.
My Call: Alabama 27, Arkansas 16
#8 Michigan State at Purdue
Despite a near face plant in the 4th quarter, Michigan State was able to hold on and beat Nebraska by five points and get themselves back in the playoff talk with all the upsets that happened over this past weekend. This coming game against a Purdue team that simply lacks the talent on both sides of the ball to keep up shouldn't be too much of a problem. This time, there won't be any 4th quarter dramatics to deal with either.
My Call: Michigan State 31, Purdue 10
USC at #10 Arizona
Craziness should have been seen by everyone continuing on Saturday after Arizona went into Autzen Stadium and upset Oregon this past Thursday. Now they'll look to avoid a letdown at home against a Trojans team that was stunned at home by Arizona State on a last second hailmary. U of A to me is a little like the NFL's Arizona Cardinals, I just won't believe in them over the long haul until I actually see it. That's my logic for taking USC in a shootout. Logic just doesn't seem to fit in college football this year. U of A had trouble with the likes of UT-San Antonio, Cal and Nevada yet beat Oregon on the road. USC lost at Boston College and at home to ASU yet beat Stanford on the road. That's reason number two why I'm going with Tommy Trojan here.
My Call: USC 37, Arizona 34
Texas vs. #11 Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas)
Despite a strong effort defensively against a very good Baylor offense, it just wasn't enough for a Texas offense that was only able to muster up seven points in a 28-7 defeat. I see more of the same this week for the Longhorns. Their offense just doesn't have the talent/stability TCU's has to make Oklahoma sweat and their defense will only be able to do so much.
My Call: Oklahoma 28, Texas 13
#12 Oregon at #18 UCLA
Mirror images of each other will go at it in Pasadena. Both teams are coming off surprising home losses. The Ducks got handled at home by Arizona while UCLA took a 30-28 defeat at the hands of the Utah Utes. These teams are mirror images in the sense that they both have terrific QBs under center, but neither has a very good offensive line in front of them. Both teams also have okay but not great defensive squads. UCLA seems like a team that plays up or down to the level of the competition. They crushed their toughest test in ASU, squeaked by in wins over Virginia, Texas and Memphis and lost to Utah. I'll say they rise to the challenge and win a shootout. We'll wonder why the Bruins can't perform this way every week afterwards.
My Call: UCLA 44, Oregon 41
#13 Georgia at #23 Missouri
Change to this prediction as Georgia will be without the services of do-it-all star running back Todd Gurley. Allegations are that Gurley autographed some memorabilia and sold it for a profit. These actions have gotten him suspended indefinitely, and obviously out of this game at least. Without him, Georgia will turn to true freshman running back Nick Chubb. He's gonna have to be the do-it-all guy, especially since the Dawgs will also be without their second and third running backs. Chubb is no slouch, I certainly expect he'll have himself a very good college career, but you just don't replace a Todd Gurley, who many thought may have been the Heisman Trophy frontrunner up to this point. Now I still don't trust Mizzou that much; and could see Georgia pulling it off, but I trust them a bit more than I trust a Gurley-less Georgia squad.
My Call: Missouri 31, Georgia 27
#16 Oklahoma State at Kansas
Conference games are very rarely a gimme, but this is as close as it gets to one. This isn't one of Mike Gundy's better Okie State teams, but they shouldn't have a problem with a Kansas team that shouldn't be much of a threat to score even against a fairly average Pokes defense.
My Call: Oklahoma State 44, Kansas 20
#19 East Carolina at South Florida
ECU is one of those teams that you'd like to see play some real teams more frequently. Not that they'd necessarily be a threat to the best of the best in college football, but Shane Carden is a terrific QB and he leads an exciting offense that put up points in bunches. It should be more of the same for Shane and the Pirates against a USF team that isn't very good at all in any one facet of the game.
My Call: East Carolina 37, South Florida 17
Duke at #22 Georgia Tech
Raise your hand if you thought Georgia Tech would be 5-0 going into this matchup with Duke. I didn't, but maybe that shows how little I know about college football. I'm not sure how for real they are, but we'll certainly find out. My guess is Duke's solid defense will keep them in this one, but I'm gonna roll with the Yellow Jackets here. Their offense led by the duo of QB Justin Thomas and WR DeAndre Smelter does just enough to get them by.
My Call: Georgia Tech 23, Duke 17
Washington State at #25 Stanford
Wazzu QB Connor Halliday set a FBS record by throwing for 734 yards in the Cougars' loss at home to California, 60-59. Halliday also threw for six touchdown passes. It's obvious where the issues were for the Cougs, right? Exactly. Connor won't be putting up those type of numbers against this tough Stanford defense and while the Cardinal may not light up the scoreboard, they'll put up plenty on a bad Cougar defense to win comfortably.
My Call: Stanford 38, Washington State 24
#1 Florida State at Syracuse
Although the Noles aren't looking as strong as they did a year ago en route to the national title, they're still undefeated up to this point. They get to face a Syracuse team that's basically just a semi-better version of the one they just pounded in Wake Forest. Like in that Wake Forest game, it may take FSU a quarter and a half before they put it all together and figure out that they're the far better team, but it'll happen and then it'll get ugly from there.
My Call: Florida State 38, Syracuse 13
#3 Ole Miss at #14 Texas A&M
How do you follow up that upset over Alabama if you're the Rebels? One thing's for sure, it doesn't get much easier with a trip to College Station to take on an Aggie team that should be smarting from a beating they took at the hands of Ole Miss' Egg Bowl and in-state rival, Mississippi State. My honest opinion here is that the Rebels have the better team, but they're due for a letdown and Kenny Hill can't possibly perform as poorly at home as he did on the road in Starkville. My guess is this will end up being a nail biter where Bo Wallace ultimately comes up a bit short with a costly mistake late in the game. Kenny Hill isn't perfect against a tough Ole Miss defense, but is just good enough. And unlike the last couple weeks, Aggie receivers get over their dropped passes issues.
My Call: Texas A&M 26, Ole Miss 23
#9 TCU at #5 Baylor
Gotta admit I didn't give TCU enough credit. I didn't think much of them given their wins until this past Saturday were against the likes of Samford, Minnesota and SMU. However, they showed me they're real with that home upset over Oklahoma. Trevone Boykin was excellent in that 37-33 victory. Baylor was a little more shaky on the road in Austin against Texas, but good news for them is this one's in Waco. Bryce Petty should be able to have a bounce back performance in front of the home crowd and although my guess is Boykin and that TCU offense should be able to put up some points of their own, it'll be Petty and the Bears who emerge from a shootout victorious.
My Call: Baylor 38, TCU 35
North Carolina at #6 Notre Dame
It's not always pretty, but with Everett Golson under center, the Irish always seem to find a way to win ballgames (with the exception of one blowout loss). They shouldn't need to ugly it up too much against a UNC team that can't play any defense and shouldn't be too much of a threat offensively. My guess is the Irish won't make it as easy as it always should be, but will ultimately cruise.
My Call: Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 17
#7 Alabama at Arkansas
Kind of an interesting game here as an Arkansas team that appears to be much improved will take on a Crimson Tide team smarting from that six point loss in Oxford. Razorback coach Bret Bielema loves the ground and pound, control the clock type of style. Unfortunately for him, Alabama and coach Nick Saban do that better than Bilema and his Hogs do at this point in time. Plus the Tide can always throw to Amari Cooper, another benefit Arkansas doesn't have. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Arkansas hang in this one for a while, but it's tough to see the Tide losing two in a row, especially when this one is against a team that they should match up well with. They should ultimately gain control of this one late in the 3rd or early in the 4th quarter.
My Call: Alabama 27, Arkansas 16
#8 Michigan State at Purdue
Despite a near face plant in the 4th quarter, Michigan State was able to hold on and beat Nebraska by five points and get themselves back in the playoff talk with all the upsets that happened over this past weekend. This coming game against a Purdue team that simply lacks the talent on both sides of the ball to keep up shouldn't be too much of a problem. This time, there won't be any 4th quarter dramatics to deal with either.
My Call: Michigan State 31, Purdue 10
USC at #10 Arizona
Craziness should have been seen by everyone continuing on Saturday after Arizona went into Autzen Stadium and upset Oregon this past Thursday. Now they'll look to avoid a letdown at home against a Trojans team that was stunned at home by Arizona State on a last second hailmary. U of A to me is a little like the NFL's Arizona Cardinals, I just won't believe in them over the long haul until I actually see it. That's my logic for taking USC in a shootout. Logic just doesn't seem to fit in college football this year. U of A had trouble with the likes of UT-San Antonio, Cal and Nevada yet beat Oregon on the road. USC lost at Boston College and at home to ASU yet beat Stanford on the road. That's reason number two why I'm going with Tommy Trojan here.
My Call: USC 37, Arizona 34
Texas vs. #11 Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas)
Despite a strong effort defensively against a very good Baylor offense, it just wasn't enough for a Texas offense that was only able to muster up seven points in a 28-7 defeat. I see more of the same this week for the Longhorns. Their offense just doesn't have the talent/stability TCU's has to make Oklahoma sweat and their defense will only be able to do so much.
My Call: Oklahoma 28, Texas 13
#12 Oregon at #18 UCLA
Mirror images of each other will go at it in Pasadena. Both teams are coming off surprising home losses. The Ducks got handled at home by Arizona while UCLA took a 30-28 defeat at the hands of the Utah Utes. These teams are mirror images in the sense that they both have terrific QBs under center, but neither has a very good offensive line in front of them. Both teams also have okay but not great defensive squads. UCLA seems like a team that plays up or down to the level of the competition. They crushed their toughest test in ASU, squeaked by in wins over Virginia, Texas and Memphis and lost to Utah. I'll say they rise to the challenge and win a shootout. We'll wonder why the Bruins can't perform this way every week afterwards.
My Call: UCLA 44, Oregon 41
#13 Georgia at #23 Missouri
Change to this prediction as Georgia will be without the services of do-it-all star running back Todd Gurley. Allegations are that Gurley autographed some memorabilia and sold it for a profit. These actions have gotten him suspended indefinitely, and obviously out of this game at least. Without him, Georgia will turn to true freshman running back Nick Chubb. He's gonna have to be the do-it-all guy, especially since the Dawgs will also be without their second and third running backs. Chubb is no slouch, I certainly expect he'll have himself a very good college career, but you just don't replace a Todd Gurley, who many thought may have been the Heisman Trophy frontrunner up to this point. Now I still don't trust Mizzou that much; and could see Georgia pulling it off, but I trust them a bit more than I trust a Gurley-less Georgia squad.
My Call: Missouri 31, Georgia 27
#16 Oklahoma State at Kansas
Conference games are very rarely a gimme, but this is as close as it gets to one. This isn't one of Mike Gundy's better Okie State teams, but they shouldn't have a problem with a Kansas team that shouldn't be much of a threat to score even against a fairly average Pokes defense.
My Call: Oklahoma State 44, Kansas 20
#19 East Carolina at South Florida
ECU is one of those teams that you'd like to see play some real teams more frequently. Not that they'd necessarily be a threat to the best of the best in college football, but Shane Carden is a terrific QB and he leads an exciting offense that put up points in bunches. It should be more of the same for Shane and the Pirates against a USF team that isn't very good at all in any one facet of the game.
My Call: East Carolina 37, South Florida 17
Duke at #22 Georgia Tech
Raise your hand if you thought Georgia Tech would be 5-0 going into this matchup with Duke. I didn't, but maybe that shows how little I know about college football. I'm not sure how for real they are, but we'll certainly find out. My guess is Duke's solid defense will keep them in this one, but I'm gonna roll with the Yellow Jackets here. Their offense led by the duo of QB Justin Thomas and WR DeAndre Smelter does just enough to get them by.
My Call: Georgia Tech 23, Duke 17
Washington State at #25 Stanford
Wazzu QB Connor Halliday set a FBS record by throwing for 734 yards in the Cougars' loss at home to California, 60-59. Halliday also threw for six touchdown passes. It's obvious where the issues were for the Cougs, right? Exactly. Connor won't be putting up those type of numbers against this tough Stanford defense and while the Cardinal may not light up the scoreboard, they'll put up plenty on a bad Cougar defense to win comfortably.
My Call: Stanford 38, Washington State 24
Auburn Game Preview and Prediction (at Mississippi State)
Hosting LSU wasn't much of a contest for Auburn as they cruised to a 41-7 victory. It was the best all-around effort all year long for Auburn on both sides of the ball. The offense put up 298 rushing yards and three scores while Nick Marshall and the passing game accounted for 268 yards and a couple TDs of their own. Wide receiver Sammie Coates had his breakthrough performance after a quiet first four games, catching four passes for 144 yards and a very nice TD catch. The competition figures to get a lot tougher this week though as a trip to Starkville to take on the now #3 ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs is on tap. This will be the second of four teams nicknamed the Bulldogs that Auburn will be playing this season. They already took on and beat Louisiana Tech. Later Auburn plays Georgia and FCS member Samford; two more Bulldogs. Last season's Auburn/Mississippi State was a back and forth affair which Auburn won 24-20 on the strength of a final minute drive; with the last play being an 11 yard touchdown strike to C.J. Uzomah up the right sideline. That win ended what was at the time a 10 game losing streak within the SEC for Auburn, who has since won 9 of their last 10 SEC games.
To make it 10 for their last 11 wins in SEC play, Auburn will have to figure out a way to contain Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott. They did a solid enough job in pass defense, but Dak's size and mobility were able to truck for 133 yards and two TDs in last year's game. Tackling him is sort of like trying to tackle a vending machine with legs. He appears to be improved as a passer this season. Compared to last year where he threw for just 10 TDs and 7 interceptions, Dak has thrown for 13 TD passes to just two interceptions. His running is still there, rushing for 455 yards and six touchdowns in MSU's first five games of the year. Other than Prescott, Mississippi State also boasts another dangerous rushing threat the Auburn defense will need to account for in running back Josh Robinson. He had himself a game this past week in the Bulldogs 48-31 win over Texas A&M, rushing for 107 yards and two TDs on just 17 carries. Mississippi State has spread the ball out a lot when they throw it, as they have four guys that have 247 (DeRunnya Wilson), 223 (Jameon Lewis), 173 (Fred Brown) and 111 receiving yards (RB Josh Robinson) respectively. If you want to go by touchdowns, the best of the bunch so far has been Wilson; he has caught 5 TD passes from Dak Prescott. With his 6'5", 215 pound frame, it's not hard to see why that's the case. Last year, Lewis was the best of the bunch with 64 catches which led to 923 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
In addition to an offense that will be tough to stop, Mississippi State also brings in a solid defense. The leader of this defense is definitely number 50, Benardrick McKinney. If you're also a fan of the NFL, remember that name because he will absolutely be playing on Sundays once he leaves college. This redshirt junior linebacker can play any position in the linebacking core. Before the season, he was named to the Bednarik Award, Nagurski Trophy, Butkus Award and Lombardi Award watch lists. Through five games, McKinney has been a terror, recording 3 sacks and six tackles for loss. Another guy who has been playing well up front for the Bulldogs is Preston Smith. Number 91 has 2.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss so far after recording 12 TFL and 7 sacks as a junior. Smith isn't nearly as highly regarded as McKinney, who is being thought of as a possible first round selection, but Smith should be able to get his name on the NFL radar before this season is over. If there's one area the Mississippi State defense may be a bit vulnerable, it would be in the secondary. They are near the bottom of the FBS in terms of overall pass defense. That means Nick Marshall will have to air it out to D'haquille Williams, Sammie Coates and Co.
Like Auburn, Mississippi State is also 5-0 coming into this game. As a result of this, the Bulldogs have moved all the way up to a tie for third in the AP Poll with Egg Bowl and in-state SEC rival Ole Miss (something I'm sure neither team/school likes) and sixth in the coaches poll. In addition to that most recent 48-31 win over Texas A&M, Mississippi State cruised to easy wins over Southern Miss and South Alabama, got a battle for a while from UAB before pulling away about midway through the third quarter in a 47-34 win and also won 34-29 over LSU in Baton Rouge in a game they dominated until the last 10 minutes where LSU made a big run to make it close.
As I previously stated, obviously the Auburn passing game will need to be in fine form since the Mississippi State run defense is very good. They showed that a year ago in limiting what was an amazing Auburn ground attack to just 120 yards on 36 carries and no touchdowns. Say what you will about how the Auburn offense hadn't yet taken off, but that's a mighty impressive stat when you saw how Auburn pretty much romped through the rest of their schedule until the national championship game save for one night in Baton Rouge against LSU. One thing that Auburn can take from the 24-20 win a year ago was winning the game despite losing the turnover battle 3 to 0. Nick Marshall lost two fumbles and threw an interception (granted the latter happened at the end of the first half where nothing bad came of it). Both these teams defend the run well; so I do think both run offenses will be contained to an extent. Don't get me wrong, Dak Prescott will get his and I expect Auburn's run game to be better than it was a year ago. To me, it's gonna come down to limiting turnovers and which passing game can be superior. I'd give Auburn the favor in the latter department, and I think Marshall will do a better job of hanging onto the ball this time than he did last year. That will be just enough for Auburn to escape Starkville with a hard fought, 60 minute win.
My Call: Auburn 30, Mississippi State 27
To make it 10 for their last 11 wins in SEC play, Auburn will have to figure out a way to contain Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott. They did a solid enough job in pass defense, but Dak's size and mobility were able to truck for 133 yards and two TDs in last year's game. Tackling him is sort of like trying to tackle a vending machine with legs. He appears to be improved as a passer this season. Compared to last year where he threw for just 10 TDs and 7 interceptions, Dak has thrown for 13 TD passes to just two interceptions. His running is still there, rushing for 455 yards and six touchdowns in MSU's first five games of the year. Other than Prescott, Mississippi State also boasts another dangerous rushing threat the Auburn defense will need to account for in running back Josh Robinson. He had himself a game this past week in the Bulldogs 48-31 win over Texas A&M, rushing for 107 yards and two TDs on just 17 carries. Mississippi State has spread the ball out a lot when they throw it, as they have four guys that have 247 (DeRunnya Wilson), 223 (Jameon Lewis), 173 (Fred Brown) and 111 receiving yards (RB Josh Robinson) respectively. If you want to go by touchdowns, the best of the bunch so far has been Wilson; he has caught 5 TD passes from Dak Prescott. With his 6'5", 215 pound frame, it's not hard to see why that's the case. Last year, Lewis was the best of the bunch with 64 catches which led to 923 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
In addition to an offense that will be tough to stop, Mississippi State also brings in a solid defense. The leader of this defense is definitely number 50, Benardrick McKinney. If you're also a fan of the NFL, remember that name because he will absolutely be playing on Sundays once he leaves college. This redshirt junior linebacker can play any position in the linebacking core. Before the season, he was named to the Bednarik Award, Nagurski Trophy, Butkus Award and Lombardi Award watch lists. Through five games, McKinney has been a terror, recording 3 sacks and six tackles for loss. Another guy who has been playing well up front for the Bulldogs is Preston Smith. Number 91 has 2.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss so far after recording 12 TFL and 7 sacks as a junior. Smith isn't nearly as highly regarded as McKinney, who is being thought of as a possible first round selection, but Smith should be able to get his name on the NFL radar before this season is over. If there's one area the Mississippi State defense may be a bit vulnerable, it would be in the secondary. They are near the bottom of the FBS in terms of overall pass defense. That means Nick Marshall will have to air it out to D'haquille Williams, Sammie Coates and Co.
Like Auburn, Mississippi State is also 5-0 coming into this game. As a result of this, the Bulldogs have moved all the way up to a tie for third in the AP Poll with Egg Bowl and in-state SEC rival Ole Miss (something I'm sure neither team/school likes) and sixth in the coaches poll. In addition to that most recent 48-31 win over Texas A&M, Mississippi State cruised to easy wins over Southern Miss and South Alabama, got a battle for a while from UAB before pulling away about midway through the third quarter in a 47-34 win and also won 34-29 over LSU in Baton Rouge in a game they dominated until the last 10 minutes where LSU made a big run to make it close.
As I previously stated, obviously the Auburn passing game will need to be in fine form since the Mississippi State run defense is very good. They showed that a year ago in limiting what was an amazing Auburn ground attack to just 120 yards on 36 carries and no touchdowns. Say what you will about how the Auburn offense hadn't yet taken off, but that's a mighty impressive stat when you saw how Auburn pretty much romped through the rest of their schedule until the national championship game save for one night in Baton Rouge against LSU. One thing that Auburn can take from the 24-20 win a year ago was winning the game despite losing the turnover battle 3 to 0. Nick Marshall lost two fumbles and threw an interception (granted the latter happened at the end of the first half where nothing bad came of it). Both these teams defend the run well; so I do think both run offenses will be contained to an extent. Don't get me wrong, Dak Prescott will get his and I expect Auburn's run game to be better than it was a year ago. To me, it's gonna come down to limiting turnovers and which passing game can be superior. I'd give Auburn the favor in the latter department, and I think Marshall will do a better job of hanging onto the ball this time than he did last year. That will be just enough for Auburn to escape Starkville with a hard fought, 60 minute win.
My Call: Auburn 30, Mississippi State 27
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)